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Verify our AI forecast accuracy claims independently

Read the public endpoint, check the Wilson CI, judge the sample size

4-6 min · beginner

What you'll have when finished

  • Understand why we report Wilson 95% CI instead of point estimates
  • Know when a sample size is too small to act on
  • Verify our claims yourself without an account

Before you start

  • A 100% win-rate on n=3 is meaningless. The Wilson lower bound is what matters.
  • Past forecast accuracy is not a guarantee of future performance.

Walkthrough

  1. Open the public endpoint

    Visit /api/forecast-accuracy/summary in your browser — no account required. Read global stats with Wilson CI.

  2. Inspect per-symbol breakdown

    Open Intelligence → Forecast Accuracy. Check accuracy + sample size for the symbols you care about.

  3. Read the Wilson lower bound

    For each symbol, the lower bound of the CI is what gets ranked. n=3 with 100% accuracy has Wilson lower bound ≈ 16% — visibly bad.

    Success criteria: n ≥ 20 before acting · Wilson lower bound ≥ 50% · Days active ≥ 30

  4. Look for unresolved forecasts

    The "Recent" tab shows unresolved forecasts (when the resolution candle was >90min off-horizon). We never auto-resolve with stale data.

What's next

Read another platform's "accuracy" claim. Note whether they show sample size and confidence intervals. Compare.