strategy-dev

Project realistic launch volume in 10 minutes

Replace pitch-deck vibes with named real-world comparables

10 min · intermediate

What you'll have when finished

  • Have one defensible P10/P50/P90 volume projection for your token
  • Have 3-5 named comparable tokens to cite in pitch decks
  • Understand how the listing-tier multiplier swings 2x-20x

Before you start

  • NOT a guarantee — real launch volume depends on marketing, team execution, market conditions that no tool can predict
  • P10 (worst case) matters more than P50 (median) for risk planning
  • Wide P10-P90 band = high variance among comparables = lower confidence; narrow your inputs

Walkthrough

  1. Open Launch Volume Forecaster + read the explainer

    Elite → Launch Volume Forecaster. The amber "What is this tool" panel is expanded by default. Read it once — 30 seconds explains the comparable methodology that drives the output.

    Success criteria: You can articulate that the tool returns P10/P50/P90 bands from named real comparables

  2. Pick the closest preset

    Pick: Utility/platform ($5M cap, one CEX) / DeFi protocol ($25M cap, few CEX) / Memecoin ($1M cap, DEX-only) / GameFi ($10M cap, few CEX) / Tier-1 Major Launch ($50M cap, tier-1). The preset fills sector + market cap + listing tier together.

    Success criteria: A preset is selected and the 3 inputs are populated

  3. Adjust your specific target market cap

    If your project targets a different market cap from the preset, override it. Available presets: $1M / $5M / $10M / $25M / $50M / $100M. Be HONEST about what you can realistically achieve at launch — overstating the cap inflates the forecast and undermines credibility.

    Success criteria: Market cap reflects your honest day-1 expectation

  4. Pick the listing tier you can realistically achieve

    4 tiers: dex_only (1x baseline) / one_cex (2-4x) / few_cex (4-10x) / tier1 (10-20x). If you have not closed a tier-1 CEX deal, do NOT pick tier1 for the forecast. Use Listing Readiness Scorecard to honestly assess what tier you can hit.

    Success criteria: Listing tier matches your realistic best-case (not aspirational max)

  5. Click Forecast volume

    Backend takes 5-15 seconds. Returns the P10/P50/P90 30-day chart + the comparables list + the top-comparable callout. The chart shows daily volume bands; the comparables list shows which named tokens drove the numbers.

    Success criteria: Chart visible AND comparables list shows at least 5 named tokens

  6. Sanity-check the comparables

    Click through the comparables list. Do they actually resemble your project? If the list includes obviously dissimilar tokens (memecoins listed when you are a DeFi protocol), narrow the inputs and re-run. Sanity-checking the comparables is the single most important quality gate.

    Success criteria: You can articulate why ≥3 of the comparables are reasonable matches for your project

  7. Cite the top-comparable in your pitch

    For investor / MM pitches, use the top-comparable callout verbatim. Example: "Tokens like ours — Aave, Compound, Synthetix — currently trade $XM-$YM/day median per the last 30 days." Specific, verifiable, defensible. Replace generic "we project $Z" with this.

    Success criteria: You have one pitch-deck-ready sentence citing named comparables

What's next

You have a defensible projection. Use the P50 in your pitch but include P10 (worst case) and P90 (best case) bands to show you understand uncertainty. After launch, use Volume Health dashboard to track actual vs forecast monthly — if you are running below P10 after 3 months, something is materially wrong with execution. Pair forecast with DEX Liquidity Optimizer to size your pool for the projected volume.